Tight Labor Market is Here to Stay

If you’re clinging to the notion that enhanced unemployment is the reason you can’t hire help, let me be the first to say you will find yourself short-staffed – if not closed – come this time next year. Here’s why….

A LOT of People Died; They’re Not Being Replaced

Covid has cost us more than 600,000 lives, and it’s not over yet. The ripple that those deaths have caused throughout our country and culture hasn’t even been examined never mind calculated. The loss of a parent has enormous repercussions on a family – not just for a few months, but for years. Worse, we’re all getting old. Our crap diets, epidemic of obesity, Type 2 diabetes, and a variety of other “behavioral” and “non-compliant” health issues will contribute to the rapid exit of many from the labor market.

Declining birth rates, along with a declining sperm count, has been a back-burner socio-economic issue for decades. China’s lifted the one child rule. There’s a huge shortage of women in both China and India, and some countries are now encouraging motherhood via subsidies and other programs.

I’m not sure this will make much of a difference in the birthrate, though. Seems that regardless of incentive, wealth or opportunity, women choose to have fewer or no children, and that trend will likely continue. Maybe motherhood isn’t the greatest job a woman can have.

Wealth Transfer

You think millennials are spoiled and entitled now? Wait until they inherit a ton of money….

We are on the cusp of the greatest generational transfer of wealth in our nation’s history. As Baby Boomers die, they are transferring their wealth — not necessarily to their children — but often to their grandchildren. According to the WSJ, the average inheritance is a little over $200K. That is a life-changing amount.

Money gives you freedom. Money gives you options. Money gives you the ability to take risks. Money makes it whole lot easier to tell people to fuck-off.

Business owners take heed: If you’re difficult to work for and/or your business depends on a never-ending supply of people who are poor, desperate, or have few economic options, you may need to reconsider your business model.

Retirement

The tail end of the Baby-Boom generation (those born in the late 1950s early 1960s depending on who’s talkin’), is nearing retirement age, which can range from 62-72, or earlier, depending on how much money you want to pull from Social Security and your other accounts.

It’s estimated that Covid “forced” about 2 million people into retirement. Some could be enticed back into the job market, but most of these are permanent life changes – they will never return to the labor market.

Money managers are quick to point out that people can’t “afford” to retire, and you are likely to outlive your money, but that’s mostly their commissions’ talkin’. You’d be surprised how little you need to live on when you only have two old people to feed, and all your stuff is paid for.

Nevertheless, depending on the nature of the work and people’s health, some of boomers, of course, will continue to work. However, those are more likely to be at the very top-end or very bottom-end of the income spectrum. The rest of us will sell our homes, move to someplace cheaper, and be done with working for “the man” every night and day.

Small City Employers are at a Disadvantage

Gone are the days that a company in Des Moines or Charlotte or Salt Lake could pay less than a company in San Francisco or New York. If your profession is in demand, and you can work virtually, no longer does your compensation and career path need to be stifled because you want to live in a smaller city.

This is the start of a golden age for labor. Companies that pay more and support virtual workers will suck talent out of smaller markets – to the detriment of those companies headquarter or office-ed there.

Regional pay scales are on the shelf next to the fax machine. No one cares where your office is. If you want IT talent, other highly skilled, gold-collar workers, you’re going to need to level-up your compensation, or you are not going to be able to compete. And, if you can’t compete? You’re not going to be in business.

The Commute? That’s Comin’ Outta YOUR End!

Jamie Dimon, a champion of capitalism (until he’s short on cash, then he’s first in line at The Fed), has “demanded’ JPMorgan/Chase workers return to on-site work and Jamie’s “culture,” adding that if people didn’t like the commute, that’s “too bad.”

Maybe Jamie isn’t good at math? Let’s say you have a 45-minute drive to work, and are on-site five days a week (eight hours working, one hour unpaid lunch), that’s 52.5 hours a week “dedicated” to work – minimum. Men, add in an additional hour of “prep” time; women 1.5 hours of prep each day and now you’re up to 78.75. In other words, almost double the amount of time compared to the hours you are paid for….!!

So, if you’re making $35/hr your real hourly is closer to $17/hr – before taxes and before other expenses and lost opportunity costs, like your side hustle or education. That’s why the poor stay poor. And, that’s also why I’m not going to drive to your office, or commute to a restaurant, or hire a sitter (if I could find one). I think I’ll just stay home, cook from scratch, take on-line classes, and look for job where I contribute 40 hours and get paid for 40 hours. That’s just a smart business decision. It doesn’t make me an entitled ass-hole who doesn’t want to work.

It’s not about the commute — it’s about being paid for all my time. I’m contributing time (which, I believe, is the same as money), to enhance Jamie’s “culture” – whatever metric that is. However, all that good culture money is coming out of my end, not Jamie’s. He’s all up for the “free” culture, but I’ve yet to hear him say that his culture is important enough that he’s going to part-with-some-cash for it.

I believe in karma (and capitalism), so I feel confident Jamie and his other banking buddies will receive a big message about onsite work (probably when one of their cloud APIs goes down in a smoldering heap of technical debt). At that moment, they will see that labor isn’t as forgiving as The Fed. I think Jamie will also learn that he’s not a home-town hero, a lot of employers are more than willing to hire talent from Ohio.

Finally….

Here’s a universal truth: When you’re rich, life doesn’t change very quickly or very radically. For the affluent, things roll-along, even in the worst of times. Because many wealthy capitalists haven’t personally “felt” the change Covid has brought to the labor market, they don’t think that it’s real. They don’t understand this “entitlement” of labor, or that the world is fundamentally different now, and why we just can’t order people to “go back” to our good-old pre-Covid cubical culture.

Even before Covid, the rise of gold-collar, knowledge workers was beginning to reverse the employer advantage in competitive labor markets like tech and healthcare. Crisis, as a cultural accelerant, has firmly flipped the advantage to labor – and economists predict it’s going to stay that way for a l-o-n-g time….

Labor has had decades of opportunity and advice on how to be a good employee. That cannot be said of employers. Most employers are spoiled, entitled, and have a long history of a “Doritos” style of talent management (“They’re just people, we’ll get more…”). And because so many employers historically have shown zero interest in being a good employer, now they can’t seem to hire anybody.

The tight labor market isn’t about lazy millennials or enhanced unemployment benefits. Things have changed, even if they haven’t changed for you personally. Employers need to accept reality, and level-up their hiring game or they’re going to be out maneuvered by those who will.

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If you enjoyed this article, check out some of my other posts and podcasts on employment, interviewing, and the contingent job market.

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July 12, 2021 0

11 Things that Are Better Because of Covid

We are changed by every failure, set-back, disaster, or crisis we encounter. Covid is the most profound of events because it has affected each of us personally, and our communities and nations globally. No one has escaped. No one is immune.

As vaccines are distributed and the smoke begins to clear, we need to ask, “What is the gift?” Here’s 11 of ‘em…

~ 1 ~ Our Neighbors

I’ve met more of my neighbors in the past eight months than I have in the past eight years. People are home. They have time to chat. The want to chat…! Pre-Covid, I would be socializing with my co-workers at after-work happy hours, but that’s not going to happen when you’re on Zoom.

There’s little doubt we will see our social lives shift from work-centric to community centric. Maybe that’s why we’re all moving someplace else….

~ 2 ~ Our Technical Prowess

We’re using our laptops, pads, mobile and Bluetooth devices more effectively, and for things we never did before. This is important because technology doesn’t improve without user feedback.

User feedback allows technologists to improve software quickly and more meaningfully. Be prepared for a big leap forward in our quality of connectedness.

The great thing about technology is that the more people use it, the better it gets.

~ 3 ~ Our Cooking

Tearing up your own lettuce at .89 cents a bunch isn’t as burdensome as once thought. Kids are cooking real meals, planning menus, using fractions, and everyone is wondering why we weren’t doing this before.

Don’t get me wrong: I love eating in a restaurant and having people bring me stuff. But, I also realize that eating out used a lot of my disposable income that probably could have been spent on investment, not, literally, consumption.

~ 4 ~ Our Savings

Not eating out, not commuting, no coffee snacks, dry cleaning, happy hour(s), multiple vehicles, soccer fees, miscellaneous mall trips….Perhaps Wall Street is doing so well because there’s not much else to buy?

For those who have escaped lay-offs and can work virtually, the cost of going back and forth to an office is abundantly clear. And, after a year of gitn’ er done from home, it’s doubtful anyone is going to cough up a big chunk of his/her net income just to commute into an office again every day.

~ 5 ~ Our Employers

Employers now realize they actually need their employees! They’ve become obnoxiously pro-family – almost to the point of being anti-single — and many (sheepishly) admit that their 1950’s insistence that everyone be on-site every day was more about tradition (and control), not so much about collaboration and teamwork.

The more people work virtually, the better they will get at it.

Virtual work has its advantages (and challenges), and not everyone is going to survive (or thrive), in a cyber office. But, make no mistake, those without the self-discipline to meet deadlines and the responsibilities of a virtual team and managers who cannot manage virtual teams or projects will soon find themselves on the shelf (next to the thermal Fax machine).

~ 6 ~ Our Weight

At the beginning of this pandemic, I saw a big increase in people on the hiking trails and local jogging routes. Many were clearly new to exercise. A few months in, some potatoes have returned to their couches, but not all.

Exercise isn’t about motivation; it’s about habits. And bravo to those who have changed theirs to reflect a commitment to their health.

~ 7 ~ Our Compassion

Racial inequities, disconsolate healthcare workers, grieving families, food lines that stretch for miles. Pain has a unique way of stripping away all the bullshit and exposing the true essence of humanity.

Covid has been an accelerant of social change. With sickness and death all around, we’ve been forced to see parts of ourselves and our lives, and others, in a way we never did before. We’re all better for it.

~ 8 ~ Our Supply Chain

While military logistics plays a huge role in vaccination efforts, companies like Amazon, Walmart, Kroger, CVS – millions of restaurants, processors, growers and the myriad of private delivery services pivoted in a way that could never have been accomplished by a government bureaucracy.

Urban warehousing, drones, and delivery-o’-everything will improve to provide for our just-in-time toilet paper needs.

~ 9 ~ The News

At first, everyone was grappling with how to produce a show using just video. But, they figured it out, and it has a lot of advantages.

Because there’s no need for the guest to physically be there, we’re able to hear voices, insights, and opinions that probably would not have made it to the “lame” stream media. Audio and video quality that would have been unacceptable 12 months ago isn’t even questioned now.

More of us are actively seeking unfiltered information. We want to hear exactly what was said, not some politically spun version of alternative facts. That doesn’t mean anyone will change her/his mind, but it’s good to know that real information is out there, and lots of bona fide journalists are, too.

~ 10 ~ Our Homes

If you drive for a living, and you would need a different vehicle than you would for occasion use. The same is true for the home office. A small bedroom was fine for the random WFH day or to check email on Sunday. Eight-to-nine-hours-five-day-a-week-and-weekends. Now, you’re under house arrest.

The connected home, IoT, learning centers and the need for multiple home offices will force a change in residential architecture. The need for both functional and attractive family “business” centers has just begun.

~ 11 ~ Our Government Services

Yeah, I said it. Bravado and bluster are part of America’s global bad rep’ (We’re #1!), But, when people are sick, dying, afraid, and the economy is in shambles, you begin to recognize that integrity, hard work, and statesmanship is the social compact we really entered into. We pay taxes for leadership, macro- planning, infrastructure, and services that cannot be provided by the private sector. I’m happy that Amazon can deliver my socks. I think I still want the CDC or NIH to be in the public health business.

Finally, I think this pandemic has ended the, “Teachers don’t work very hard,” fantasy.

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This has been a difficult year for everyone – no one has escaped loneliness, sadness, and at times, the overwhelming feeling of hopelessness. Perhaps a moment to reflect on the good that has come from this can help ease these pains. We will never return to where we were, but now that we can see where we’re going, it looks to be pretty okay….

Happy Holidays!

December 17, 2020 0

How Would YOU Caption This?

This cartoon and it’s original caption, “Describe what you can bring to this company,” has gone viral on Twitter and FB. I’ve collected a few hilarious – and a few very pointed – responses off the various feeds, and I would like to hear….

How would you caption this?

~Well, you are the most qualified, but I’m not sure I want to get a beer with you.

~I don’t disagree with your recommendations, but you need to tone down your presentation. You don’t want to sound bitter.

~We are ready to begin the inquiry into the sexual harassment complaint you filed.

~If you work really, really hard and prove yourself, we might consider hiring you full time.

~I’m not sure that the team will respond to your management style.

~The most important thing is we hire someone who reflects our culture and values.

~I’ll have the turkey wrap, and make sure there’s enough cookies and water for the afternoon.

“~~my life debating Republicans in committee each week.” – AOC

~I’m not sure you have the leadership skills for this job.

~We’re looking for a team player. Are you a team player?

~If all you bring is your gender and skin color, then you aren’t worth very much.”

June 15, 2020 0